TNA Breakdown 12.27.11

TNA Is Breaking Out (12.21.11)

TNA 12/01/11

TNA is showing a Bump & Run Bottom, which should target a price of 52-54 depending on when it arrives. I have cloned the original green line to show targets and trendline to determine when it might arrive.

Bump & Run Bottom stats:
Overall performance rank (1 is best): 8 out of 23
Break even failure rate: 2%
Average rise: 38%
Throwback rate: 59%
Percentage meeting price target: 68%


I am NOT feeling over confident in this market since this rise is on
low volume and happens mostly overnight, when the markets are
susceptible to manipulation using futures trading. Low volumes can
lever large changes, so one suspects manipulation by the traders,
whoever they are and whoever they work for. Most manipulation tends to keep the markets from dropping, so one suspects a political-financial relationship. I do know regulator restraint of most everybody is not existent if one is a major player.

The one thing I have noted is a gap day followed by a pause day. It
appears to be repeating now, so tomorrow should be a gap day. The
question, of course, is which way. I would love to enjoy a gap day
like yesterday when prices moved over 15%, but have fear of suffering such a day.

TZA, ERY 11/22/11

The majority of market movement occurs on the start of trading or actually overnight when there is no trading, so the only way to take advantage of this is figure out which way it will be and position before close.

With the markets deteriorating on both a daily and weekly time frame, TZA has gained the upper Bollinger and appears it will ride it. Volume indicators are not leading but now confirm the movement.



ERY seems to be reflecting the deterioration of both the markets and oil itself. Volume indicators are leading price.





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After tiring of watching and not trusting the holiday markets, sold both for almost a 7% one-day profit.

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11/25/2011: Probably should have just quit watching rather than selling off.

TNA, TZA at a Market Turn, I suspect.

TNA's OBV has broken down and price rides the bottom of the pennant.Usually when a breakout from a pennant does not come before the 2/3rds area, it won't. Also, this pennant has a flat side down, and breakouts tend to come out the flat side.

Looking at TZA gives me no overwhelming case. Bollinger bands are closing, so that is promising. On Balance Volume is tracking price but not leading. PPO (similar to MACD) singled a buy on the 9th, but price action has been flat since.

11.17.2011
TNA appears to be heading towards the opposite (lower) Bollinger band. You can clearly see the peak inside the band following last month's peak outside. The target previously calculated was 53 and it peaked at 53.43. When things work like that, life seems magically wonderful. On Balance Volume (green) and Accum/Distrib (blue) continue in new high territory, so I may buy in when/as/if TNA reaches the lower band, now at 41.15. Note, too, the Bollinger bands are contracting, indicating a calm before the storm. The 58 target remains valid, with the 41.15 level indicating an almost negligible loss amount. P&F calculated target is at 57, confirming that target. Previous resistance levels are over 60, further adding warm-fuzzies. Had not Moody's downgraded the twelve banks, it may well have started on its way yesterday, but the 41.something price will give me an extra 10% profit for my patience--and more than cover the nibble loss. I could easily grow to love his stuff.

11.16.2011
Broke out intraday, then Moody's downgraded 12 German banks. Market dropped 190 points in the last hour. I got nibbled for a $93 loss plus $20 commissions. Better nibbled than snake bitten.




11.15.2011
It would appear we have a developing situation that will perhaps breakout tomorrow. We have a flag at half mast, and in a pennant. Volume indicates it is being accumulated and both On Balance Volume and Accum/Distrib are at new highs. Today we got a bullish engulfing pattern on higher volume.

Price target indicates (53-27) + 42 = 58.

The market in general may be bullish since the PPI was positive today, indicating the CPI out tomorrow may also look good. A signal would be the breakout from the upper pennant line now around 48, preferably on higher volume.

DIG DUG

It would appear we have a miniature bubble pop with a retracement in progress. Note the fading volume on the retracement. The idea is to gain entry in DUG when, as, and if it indicates oil will continue its retreat in price.