TNA 01/30/2012

TNA came down and tested the lower regression channel border (black) as well as the resistance level.(red)--see lower left hand window.

As I've noted before, it occurred in the initial hour the market was open, in this case, 10:15 -- see upper right hand window.

Of course, this seems to happen about very fourth day, during the time I am out for designer coffee--and usually without a limit order in.

TNA Hourly 01/27/2012

Attached is the hourly graph of TNA over the last couple of months. You can observe the trendline breakout and retest (blue line), and the working sideways through the resistance levels (red lines). There are two linear regression channels shown (black lines), the longer-term one in heavier lines, the one since breakout in the lighter lines. The price is now following the shorter-term linear regression channel across the width of the longer term one.

The Measure Rule target is shown at 61 just as in the daily graph. Please, recall the Measure Rule is achieved 85% of the time (which also means it fails 15%). A Measure Rule also exists for breaking down or bearish breakouts, but those targets are only achieved 63% of the time).

Please, note every few days the price reaches the lower, short-term channel boundary--and also touches to lower Bollinger band simultaneously. These are good points to enter a trade if one doesn't already have a position or wishes to add to that position. As I pointed out previously, these lows usually occur between 0930 and 1030 in the mornings, and on the hourly graph, this shows. This morning's low did not reach the short-term channel boundary, but reacted to the center line of the longer-term regression channel. It also reached the lower Bollinger band at the same time. Please, note the price has reacted to the center longer-term regression line on several occasions, indicating the line's validity. .

Stochastics also indicate those turns when a position can/should be taken.

Finally, should the Measure Rule price objective be realized, it should come next week. The daily graph indicates earlier in the week than this hourly graph.

I have yet to add new resistance lines since the break above 49. I should, and if you will mentally do so, you will see that the lows providing new entry points usually are support levels from the highs a few days previously. These, combined with the channels, Bollinger bands, and stochastics, provide a further indication of the low point being reached--and show where that point will probably be a day or three ahead of it being reached.

I have noted the overnight gaps are now less evident. I am not sure what the explanation of or for that is, but I welcome their disappearance. They made me nervous and I was having to guess where they would eb the next morning rather than, as now, being able to enter the trade in the first hour of the day.

I am glad you are finding these helpful.

TNA 01/27/2012

TNA is running the channel nicely. It has touched the bottom several times, offering a new, low-risk entry point--and validating the channel itself. Again, the channel is a linear regression line with offset parallel lines 2 standard deviations distant.

Note, too, these lower channel line touches come when price encounters the prior resistance levels (horizontal red lines). It has now broken through the final resistance level and is free to climb to the next up around 61, which is also the target determined by the Measure Rule (green lines).

The two straight blue lines are trendlines which the price honored as it passed through, then retested before resuming its climb. The final retest also coincided with a narrowing of the Bollinger Bands, which indicates a calm before the storm. It subsequently gaped up, then retested the major resistance level it had previous attempted to break through several times.

Not shown on this graph is the observation that TNA makes its daily low sometime between 0930 and 1030 each day, including the days it tagged the lower channel lines. I can stay and watch, or enter a buy order that the lower channel price, thereby not missing morning designer coffee. If I were day trading, I could buy each morning, then sell the tops later in the day, giving me a point or two every day. A point here is 2%, so it becomes a nice profit after several days.

For swing trading, the retest of the trendline was at 45 and it closed today over 55 in fourteen trading days. That's over 20% in three weeks, or $1000 per 100 shares. Not bad; not bad at all.

And it is still running. When it goes into correction, I can flip over and trade its mirror, TZA. That is the bear version of TNA.

The package this is taken from is StrategyDesk, which is free from TDAmeriTrade when you have an account with them. They have a newer package, ThinkOrSwim, also free, but I've learned this one and my brother never convinced me to switch.

I have tried to describe this trade in a manner that you can keep as notes. It seems simple to do, and takes little time each day since one can use limit orders. I don't have to stick around and watch it--which drives me nuts. Hopefully you will find this helpful, and it does help me by explaining it.

TNA Sideways

Sideways movement goes on now as it has since August. US economy shows improvements, but EU overhangs that with consequences no one seems to know.A number of things show signs it will break upwards, at least eventually, but in the meantime, sideways.

The sideways movement has shown fairly reliable, making trading a range profitable. The current short-term linear-regression channel now challenges the longer-term channel. Volume studies are not favorable. However, it has crossed a longer-term trendline, retested it (dark-blue trendline). Same with a shorter-term trendline.

This all points to a continued sideways movement.
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1/9/12: Price driven down out of the short-term channel. Left the trade before it went lower.